Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
